ã¡ãã£ã¢èšäº
FRBè³ç£å§çž®ã5æã«ãæ¥ãããã§ãããã¬ã€ããŒãçäº
ããºãææ°ããŒã¯ 97
twitterã³ã¡ã³ã 64ä»¶äž 1ïœ64件
ãã¯ãã€ã®åèèšäºãã®â·ã§ãããã®2ã€ã®èšäºãåèã«ããŸããã
FRBçäºãèšãéãã€ã³ãã¬ã¯ãäž»ã«äœæåŸå±€ã®ç掻ã«ææãäžãããã
æ¥æ¬ã§ã¯ãæ°æ¥œãªäººãã¡ããã€ã³ãã¬èµ·ãããšå¥œæ¯æ°ããã£ãŠæ¥ããã ãããã€ã³ãã¬ãã庶æ°ã®æäžäž»ããšââã®äžã€èŠããã ãã奜æ¯æ°ãã€ã³ãã¬ãåŒã¶ã ãã§ããã€ã³ãã¬ã奜æ¯æ°ãåŒã¶ãã®ã§ã¯ãªãã
æ¥æ¬ã§ã¯ãæ°æ¥œãªäººãã¡ããã€ã³ãã¬èµ·ãããšå¥œæ¯æ°ããã£ãŠæ¥ããã ãããã€ã³ãã¬ãã庶æ°ã®æäžäž»ããšââã®äžã€èŠããã ãã奜æ¯æ°ãã€ã³ãã¬ãåŒã¶ã ãã§ããã€ã³ãã¬ã奜æ¯æ°ãåŒã¶ãã®ã§ã¯ãªãã
ã5æã«ãæ¥ãããã§å§ããã
ãããã ã£ãããšã£ãšãšé»ã£ãŠãã£ãŠãã
ããã¬ãã§ããã€
æ ªäŸ¡ã®æ»ããæå·è³ç£ã®äžæãå šãŠãååãã«ãªã£ãŠããŒã¯ãæ©ãŸãå¯èœæ§é«ã
éççž®å°æ©ãŸã£ããããžã§çµãããŸã
æªãæ¹ãžã®äºæ³å ã§ã¯ããã®ã§äžå¿æè³æŠç¥ãšããŠé«å€Sããã£ãŠãããšã¯å€§æ ãããããŠå©çåºããç¯å²ã«åãŸããŸãããã«åæã¯ã§ããã
æ ªäŸ¡ã®æ»ããæå·è³ç£ã®äžæãå šãŠãååãã«ãªã£ãŠããŒã¯ãæ©ãŸãå¯èœæ§é«ã
éççž®å°æ©ãŸã£ããããžã§çµãããŸã
æªãæ¹ãžã®äºæ³å ã§ã¯ããã®ã§äžå¿æè³æŠç¥ãšããŠé«å€Sããã£ãŠãããšã¯å€§æ ãããããŠå©çåºããç¯å²ã«åãŸããŸãããã«åæã¯ã§ããã
çµå±ãã®äººã®çºèšã§æšæ¥ã®çžå Žããªã¹ã¯ãªãã«ãªã£ãèš³ã§ã
å€äžã®FOMCè°äºèŠæšã§ãQTãå ·äœçã«èšåãããã®ã§ã¯ã
å€äžã®FOMCè°äºèŠæšã§ãQTãå ·äœçã«èšåãããã®ã§ã¯ã
5æããFRBè³ç£å§çž®ãé²ãèŠèŸŒã¿ã
åå®ãšç±³éå©é«ãé²ããããããŸããã
åå®ãšç±³éå©é«ãé²ããããããŸããã
ããžã·ã§ã³ã¯ããã«åã ãªïŒ
ãïŒ/Â¥ã®æ¬æ Œçæ¥äžæã¯ïŒæã®FOMCäŒååŸããå§ãŸããæšæ¥ããã¬ã€ããŒãçäºã¯éçåŒãç· ãïŒQTïŒãšåŒã°ããè³ç£å§çž®ã«ã€ããŠã5æã«ãæ¥ãããã§å§ããããšçºèšãããããã¯ç±³é·æéå©ããã«/åã«å€§ããªåœ±é¿ãäžããïŒç¶ïŒ
ä»æ¥ã¯ä»äºã§å
šããã£ãŒãèŠãããããªããæ¥ã«åŒ±æ°çžå Žã«ãªã£ãŠãã®ãã
ç±³åœã®æ ªäŸ¡ãããããïŒ
泚ç®ãã¥ãŒã¹ã è³ç£å§çž®ã5æã«ãæ¥ãããã§ããã¬ã€ããŒãçäºã ãšåŒã°ãã ã® é£åãåæ²¹äŸ¡æ Œãäžæããããªã¹ã¯ã«ã觊ããäœæåŸå±€ã«ææãäžãã æå¶ãæ¥ã
ãã·ã¢ã®ãŠã¯ã©ã€ã䟵æ»ãé£åãåæ²¹ã®äŸ¡æ Œãäžæ®µãšäžæããããªã¹ã¯ã«ã觊ããäž»ã«äœæåŸå±€ã®ç掻ã«ææãäžããã€ã³ãã¬ã®æå¶ãæ¥ã姿å¢ã匷調ããã
ãã掟ã®çºèšã§æ ªå®ãã«é«ãžãšã€ãªãã£ãã
ãã掟ã®çºèšã§æ ªå®ãã«é«ãžãšã€ãªãã£ãã
ãã€ã§ãèªã¿ãããšãã«
æ¥çµããã䟿å©ã«ã䜿ãããã
ããããç³ã蟌ãã° ãïŒãæç¡æ
ç¡ææéäžã¯ãã€ã§ã解çŽå¯èœ
âŒããããç³èŸŒãäžçªããã¯âŒ
æ¥çµããã䟿å©ã«ã䜿ãããã
ããããç³ã蟌ãã° ãïŒãæç¡æ
ç¡ææéäžã¯ãã€ã§ã解çŽå¯èœ
âŒããããç³èŸŒãäžçªããã¯âŒ
ä»æ¥ã®æ¥çµå¹³åã®äžãã¯FRBã®æãã掟ã®çäºãæã¿ã«æŽŸçãªçºèšãããããã
åå®ã§æ¥æ¬æ ªãäžããæ§é ãããFRBãæŽãªãã¿ã«æŽŸ(åŒãç· ã)ã«ãªã圱é¿ã®æ¹ãå¹ããã€ãŸãå€åœå¢æ¬¡ç¬¬ã®æ¥æ¬æ ªã
åå®ã§æ¥æ¬æ ªãäžããæ§é ãããFRBãæŽãªãã¿ã«æŽŸ(åŒãç· ã)ã«ãªã圱é¿ã®æ¹ãå¹ããã€ãŸãå€åœå¢æ¬¡ç¬¬ã®æ¥æ¬æ ªã
ïŒæã«ãQTçºèšã
æ¥ãããã ã£ãŠã
æ¥æ¬ã¯æ¥ãããã§æ²ããããã
æ¥ãããã ã£ãŠã
æ¥æ¬ã¯æ¥ãããã§æ²ããããã
ãFRBã®ãã¬ã€ããŒãçäºã¯5æ¥ãéçåŒãç· ãïŒQTïŒãšåŒã°ããè³ç£å§çž®ã«ã€ããŠã5æã«ãæ¥ãããã§å§ããããšçºèšããã·ã¢ã®ãŠã¯ã©ã€ã䟵æ»ãé£åãåæ²¹ã®äŸ¡æ Œãäžæ®µãšäžæããããªã¹ã¯ã«ã觊ããäž»ã«äœæåŸå±€ã®ç掻ã«ææãäžããã€ã³ãã¬ã®æå¶ãæ¥ã姿å¢ã匷調ã
Thinkã³ã¡ã³ãã
ãéã€ãŒã«ããæ¯æ°åŸéã®äºæž¬ç²ŸåºŠã¯ ç±³åžå Žã§è«äº
ãéã€ãŒã«ããæ¯æ°åŸéã®äºæž¬ç²ŸåºŠã¯ ç±³åžå Žã§è«äº
ãŸãåå®ãé²ãã§ãŸãããã
FRBã¯ã足å
ã®æ¥éãªã€ã³ãã¬ã«å¯Ÿããè³ç£å§çž® â åžäžã®ãéãæžãã â ã€ã³ãã¬æå¶ ãžåã姿å¢ãæ¯æ°æå¶ã«ãç¹ãããããæ ªäŸ¡äžèœãªã¹ã¯ãžèŠæãå¿
èŠã次åã®5æäŒåã§è³ç£å§çž®ãéå§ããã泚ç®ã
ã€ã³ãã¬å¯ŸçãšããŠã®ãããã³ã€ã³ãšããããšã§ããã°ãBTCã«ãšã£ãŠã¯ãã¬ãã£ããã¡ã³ãã«ãªãããã§ãããã©ããªããã
ãŸãåé¡ãªãéãã®ã§ãããå¯è°é·å°±ä»»ã¯ãŸã äžé¢ã§æ¿èªãããŠããŸãããå®è³ªçãªåé¡ãçããŠããªããããšãã£ãŠãæšç§ã«çºè¡šããã人äºããããŸã§å®ã¶ãããã«ãªãããšãèš±ãã®ã¯ãå¶åºŠãšããŠãã¯ãæ¬ é¥ã§ã¯ãªãããšæããŸããããŠãšã«è°é·ããèšæãã®ãŸãŸã§ãã
æšæ¥ã®äžãã®äž»å ããŸã 5æQTç¹ã蟌ããŠããªãã
ããããä»ã®ã€ã³ãã¬ã¯ã³ãããšãŠã¯ã©ã€ãã®æŠäºãåå ãªã®ã ãããéèãããªããŠæ¿æ²»ã§è§£æ±ºãã¹ãåé¡ãªããããªãã®ïŒ
ãã®ãã¥ãŒã¹ãå«ãã€ã³ãã¬ã®å±æ©æãããæ°æ¥ã§ãŸãããã«é«ããªã£ããšæããã
ãã¯ããããããŸãïŒ
æšæ¥ã®è±ªäžéã®æ¿çéå©çºè¡šã¯æ®ã眮ãã§ããã
ã¢ã¡ãªã«ã§å©äžãã«å¯ŸããŠæ欲çãªæ§åã瀺ãããåŸããã«é«æ¹é¢ã«ã
ðºðžç±³ãã«åã¯123.615åã§
ðªðºãŠãŒãåã¯134.780åã§ã¹ã¿ãŒãããŸããã
æšæ¥ã®è±ªäžéã®æ¿çéå©çºè¡šã¯æ®ã眮ãã§ããã
ã¢ã¡ãªã«ã§å©äžãã«å¯ŸããŠæ欲çãªæ§åã瀺ãããåŸããã«é«æ¹é¢ã«ã
ðºðžç±³ãã«åã¯123.615åã§
ðªðºãŠãŒãåã¯134.780åã§ã¹ã¿ãŒãããŸããã
ãã¬ã€ããŒãçäºã®çºèšãåããŠã10幎åµéå©ãæ¥äžæããããã§ãããåœåµéå©ãæ¥äžæã£ãŠããšã¯å£²ãããŠãããã§âŠ
ãªã¹ã¯ãªããªãåœåµã¯è²·ãããã®ã§ã¯ïŒãšæã£ãŠãã®ã§ãããéãã®ããªð€
ãªã¹ã¯ãªããªãåœåµã¯è²·ãããã®ã§ã¯ïŒãšæã£ãŠãã®ã§ãããéãã®ããªð€
é·æéå©äžæã§æ®éãªãæ¥èœå±é¢ã
ãããæ¥æ¬ã®æ°èã°ããŒã¹ã§åŒ·ãéæãããã
ãã®ä¹é¢ã¯æè¿ãªãã£ãã
ãããæ¥æ¬ã®æ°èã°ããŒã¹ã§åŒ·ãéæãããã
ãã®ä¹é¢ã¯æè¿ãªãã£ãã
ã¿ã«æŽŸã段éãããããããè³ç£å§çž®ã«ã€ããŠã®ãããªãæ¥éãªå§çž®ãæ³å®ããŠãããã§åžå Žã¯åæºãçžå ŽãFRBã®è°äºé²ã¯åœèªååè² ã
2018幎ã®QTéå§ãã
å©äžãã¹ããããŸã§1幎
S&Pã¯çŽ2幎ã§20ïŒ äžæ
ãŸã ãããŠãªã
ãã¯ãæ¬åœã¯3m10yã§ããã
å©äžãã¹ããããŸã§1幎
S&Pã¯çŽ2幎ã§20ïŒ äžæ
ãŸã ãããŠãªã
ãã¯ãæ¬åœã¯3m10yã§ããã
æ ªäŸ¡ã«ã¯å€§ãããã€ãã¹ã
ãããªã®æ³å®å
ã»ã»ãããªãã£ãããã ããã¹ããã¯ã®äžããèŠãŠããšããã¯ãåžå Žã¯æ¥œèŠ³çãããã
>éçåŒãç· ã(QT)ãšåŒã°ããè³ç£å§çž®ã«ã€ããŠã5æã«ãæ¥ãããã§å§ããããšçºèš
æ¥éç·è£ã®å£å ä»å ¥çãªçœå¶çºèšã§äžããå¹ 50éçšããã
FRBçäºã®ä»åŸã®å ·äœçãªéèæ¿ççºèšãåã£ãŠãåè¿ãã®123å60éãž
èªæ¥èªåŸã®æ¥éç·è£ã¯ã"é²ããå°çãéããå°ç" ã®æ§çžãžã»ã»
æ¥éç·è£ã®å£å ä»å ¥çãªçœå¶çºèšã§äžããå¹ 50éçšããã
FRBçäºã®ä»åŸã®å ·äœçãªéèæ¿ççºèšãåã£ãŠãåè¿ãã®123å60éãž
èªæ¥èªåŸã®æ¥éç·è£ã¯ã"é²ããå°çãéããå°ç" ã®æ§çžãžã»ã»
ãã·ã¢ã®ãŠã¯ã©ã€ã䟵æ»ãé£åãåæ²¹ã®äŸ¡æ Œãäžæ®µãšäžæããããªã¹ã¯ã«ã觊ããäž»ã«äœæåŸå±€ã®ç掻ã«ææãäžããã€ã³ãã¬ã®æå¶ãæ¥ã姿å¢ã匷調ããã
ãããã颚朮ã«ãªããšãããã³ã€ã³ã®æ»ããçµãããããæãçµå±é£åã ãããªãã
ãã¯ããããããŸãã
FRBãéèåŒãç· ãã«ç©æ¥µçã§ããã
FRBãéèåŒãç· ãã«ç©æ¥µçã§ããã
å¯è°é·å°±ä»»äºå®ã®ãã¬ã€ããŒãããã掟ã®äžå¿äººç©ã®äžäººã ã£ããããããã¿ã«ã«è»¢åããå°è±¡ãã€ã³ãã¬æå¶ãæéèŠèª²é¡ãšç¹°ãè¿ããŠããã
ãã¯ããããããŸãã
ãã¬ã€ããŒãã®é¬Œã®ãããªé·¹çºèšã§ç±³éå©æ¥äžæãè°äºé²ã«ã¯äœãã
æ¬æ¥ããããããé¡ãããŸãã
ãã¬ã€ããŒãã®é¬Œã®ãããªé·¹çºèšã§ç±³éå©æ¥äžæãè°äºé²ã«ã¯äœãã
æ¬æ¥ããããããé¡ãããŸãã
Twitterããã¹ã¯æ°ãåç· åœ¹ã«èµ·çš
NYæ ªãã€ã©ã€ã ãã¢ããŒã±ããã©ãªãŒçµäºã ãã£ãã§ã³ã·ãæ ªã«ã·ãã
NYæ ªãã€ã©ã€ã ãã¢ããŒã±ããã©ãªãŒçµäºã ãã£ãã§ã³ã·ãæ ªã«ã·ãã
ãã¯ããããããŸãã
ãã掟ãã¿ã«æŽŸããã©ã¡ããçºèšãããã«ãã£ãŠåžå ŽããããŸããðŠ
ãã掟ãã¿ã«æŽŸããã©ã¡ããçºèšãããã«ãã£ãŠåžå ŽããããŸããðŠ
足å
ã®ã€ã³ãã¬ã«ã€ããŠãè³éäžæãç©äŸ¡ã®äžæã«è¿œãã€ããŠãããã家èšã®è³Œè²·åãäœäžããŠããããšææãç¹ã«é£åãäœå®
ãžã®æ¯åºå²åã倧ããäœæåŸå±€ãžã®åœ±é¿ã倧ãããšã®åæã瀺ããã
ãŸããã¬ã€ããŒããã
âãã¬ã€ããŒãçäºã¯5æ¥ãéçåŒãç· ãïŒQTïŒãšåŒã°ããè³ç£å§çž®ã«ã€ããŠã5æã«ãæ¥ãããã§å§ããããšçºèšãããâ
âãã¬ã€ããŒãçäºã¯5æ¥ãéçåŒãç· ãïŒQTïŒãšåŒã°ããè³ç£å§çž®ã«ã€ããŠã5æã«ãæ¥ãããã§å§ããããšçºèšãããâ
ã¢ã¡ãªã«ã¯çã
ãšåºå£æŠç¥ãå±éããŠãã
ã®ã«æ¯ã¹ãæ¥éã®éèæ¿çã®æè©°ãŸãæãå端ãããªãã
ã®ã«æ¯ã¹ãæ¥éã®éèæ¿çã®æè©°ãŸãæãå端ãããªãã
ãŸãïŒ
1æããã®äººã®çºèšã§æ ªäŸ¡äžãã£ãããããªãã£ãã£ãïŒ
1æããã®äººã®çºèšã§æ ªäŸ¡äžãã£ãããããªãã£ãã£ãïŒ
ããæŽŸä»£è¡šæ Œãè³ç£å§çž®ãžã
ãã®çºèšã§ç±³åœæ ªåŽ©ãã
ãã®çºèšã§ç±³åœæ ªåŽ©ãã
俺ãå©ç¢ºãããŸã§é»ã£ãšãã
ïŒãããã掟ãã ã£ããã¬ã€ããŒãæ°ã®å€èº«ã決å®çã«ãã€ã³ãã¬éæ²»ãåªå
ããã®ã¿ã«æŽŸè·¯ç·ãå°è±¡ä»ããŸããããã®èæ¯ãšæ¥æ¬ãžã®åœ±é¿ã¯ãã¡ãã®æçš¿ã§ãããããã解説ããŸããâ
ãŒãŒã¬ã®ã·ããªãªã©ãããšããããšãâŠãšèšããã人çã ã£ããã
æ¬åœã®åæ°èŠããŠããããã
å©äžããšåŒãç· ã
ãåã€ã
MMTã§çãŸãã
åŒç¥ã®æ§ãª
ãããŒãšã¬ãã
æŽããã
ã©ã¡ãã«ããŠã
波乱èŠå ð
ãåã€ã
MMTã§çãŸãã
åŒç¥ã®æ§ãª
ãããŒãšã¬ãã
æŽããã
ã©ã¡ãã«ããŠã
波乱èŠå ð
â¶ïž FRBãè³ç£å§çž®ãé²ãã2017ïœ19幎ããå匷ãæ¥éãªçµæžå埩ãé²ãã§ãããšææããåœæãšæ¯ã¹ãŠãããªãæ¥éãªå§çž®ãæ³å®ããŠããããšããã
Q T
5æã«ãæ¥ãããã§å§ãã
5æã«ãæ¥ãããã§å§ãã
åãããã£ãŠã話ã ãã©ã»ã»äºå®ã§ãŸã売ããªã®ïŒ
æéçãªç¶äºãããšå
ãã§ããã
ðºðžç±³åœåµ2幎2.5241%
ðºðžç±³åœåµ5幎2.7006%
ðºðžç±³åœåµ10幎2.5525%
ðºðžç±³åœåµ30幎2.5824%
ðºðžç±³åœåµ5幎2.7006%
ðºðžç±³åœåµ10幎2.5525%
ðºðžç±³åœåµ30幎2.5824%
ãããããŸãéèãã«ãçµæžãå£ããæ¥ãã¬ãŒããèžãã§ãäºæ
ãâŒïž
çºæ¿ã123åã«ãªããŸãããè³æºäŸ¡æ Œé«éš°ã§è²¿æèµ€åãé²ã¿ãäžå±€ãåã®ä¿¡çšãç¡ãããããæ¥éã®ç¡å¶éã®åœåµè²·ãå
¥ãã§éå©ã¯äžããããã€ã³ãã¬æå¶ã§å©äžãã®ç±³åœãšã¯éå©å·®æ¡å€§ã§ãŸããŸãåå®âŠð±ã
(ÂŽã»Ïã»`)
FRBã®ãã¬ã€ããŒãçäºã¯5æ¥ãéçåŒãç· ãïŒQTïŒãšåŒã°ããè³ç£å§çž®ã«ã€ããŠã5æã«ãæ¥ãããã§å§ããããšçºèšããã
FRBã¯äžè²«ããŠQTã匷ãæšãé²ãã姿å¢ã瀺ããŠããŸãã
4/6ã®FOMCè°äºæŠèŠãå¢ã«ç±³æ ªçžå ŽãåããããããŸãã
4/6ã®FOMCè°äºæŠèŠãå¢ã«ç±³æ ªçžå ŽãåããããããŸãã
çŽ40幎ã¶ãã®æ°Žæºãšãªã£ãŠãã足å
ã®ã€ã³ãã¬ã«ã€ããŠãè³éäžæãç©äŸ¡ã®äžæã«è¿œãã€ããŠãããã家èšã®è³Œè²·åãäœäžããŠããããšææãç¹ã«é£åãäœå®
ãžã®æ¯åºå²åã倧ããäœæåŸå±€ãžã®åœ±é¿ã倧ãããšã®åæã瀺ããã
ãããŒã
å€äžããã«å123ååã°ãŸã§èã¶ã£ãŠãããŸãããã掟ã ã£ããã¬ã€ããŒããããã(éèæ¿çãã¹ã£ãŠ)ã€ã³ãã¬é
·ããªã£ã¡ãã£ãããèŠæããŠã(ã»Ï<) ïŸïŸïŸïŸïŸããšåžå Žã«ç¹ã蟌ãŸããäŒæžããðâïžåœ¹ã«ã
ãããªããšããå¿ èŠãªããã£ãŠæããŠããããã©ãã§ããïŒ